OSRS: Did the Phoenix Drop Chance Change? Everything You Need to Know
Old School RuneScape (OSRS) players have long been fascinated by the elusive Phoenix pet, a fiery companion tied to the Wintertodt minigame. As one of the game’s rarest skilling-related pets, the Phoenix has sparked countless discussions about its drop rate. With recent updates and community chatter, a burning question persists: Did the Phoenix drop chance change? In this blog post, we’ll dive into the history of the Phoenix pet, analyze official updates, explore player experiences, and provide clarity on whether its drop rate has shifted. Whether you’re grinding Wintertodt or just curious, this guide has you covered.
The Phoenix pet is a coveted reward in OSRS, obtained by opening the Reward Cart after subduing the Wintertodt. Introduced on September 8, 2016, it’s a miniaturized version of the Desert Phoenix, complete with vibrant color options unlockable via gnomish firelighters. Unlike traditional skilling pets, the Phoenix is tied to a minigame rather than pure Firemaking experience, making its drop mechanics unique.
How the Phoenix Drop Works
The Phoenix drop chance is based on rolls from the Wintertodt Reward Cart. Each crate provides at least two rolls, with additional rolls granted for every 500 points earned beyond the minimum 500 required to subdue the Wintertodt. The base drop rate is widely accepted as 1/5,000 per roll, but the total chance per crate increases with more rolls. For example:
- 500 points: 2 rolls, approximately 1/2,500 chance per crate.
- 1,000 points: 3 rolls, roughly 1/1,667 chance.
- 1,500 points: 4 rolls, about 1/1,250 chance.
This scaling mechanic rewards higher effort, but the randomness of RNG keeps it elusive.
Why Players Love (and Hate) the Phoenix
The Phoenix isn’t just a status symbol—it’s a testament to dedication. Its pop culture-laden dialogue (think Dark Souls references) and aesthetic appeal make it a fan favorite. However, the grind can be brutal, with some players opening thousands of crates without success, fueling speculation about drop rate changes.
Historical Drop Rate: What We Know
Since its release, the Phoenix’s drop rate has been documented as 1/5,000 per roll, a figure confirmed by the OSRS Wiki and community calculations. Unlike true skilling pets, which scale with experience and boost to a 15x rate at 200 million XP, the Phoenix remains static, tied solely to crate rolls. But has this always been the case?
Pre-2024 Data and Assumptions
Before recent updates, the Phoenix drop rate appeared consistent. Community posts on Reddit and the OSRS Wiki from 2016–2023 align with the 1/5,000 figure. For instance, a 2016 Reddit thread calculated a 0.039996% chance per crate at 500 points, based on two rolls. No official patches prior to 2024 explicitly altered this rate.
The 200M XP Debate
Some players argue the Phoenix should follow skilling pet rules, gaining a 15x boost at 200 million Firemaking XP. A 2021 Reddit post pleaded for this change, noting the absurdity of grinding Wintertodt for potentially 5000+ crates post-99. However, Jagex classifies the Phoenix as a boss pet, not a skilling pet, keeping its rate fixed.
Recent Updates: Did Anything Change in 2025?
As of April 8, 2025, the Wintertodt minigame received significant updates in late 2024, prompting speculation about the Phoenix drop rate. Let’s break down the evidence.
The October 2024 Wintertodt Update
On October 8, 2024, Jagex rolled out the “Wintertodt Updates & Varlamore Drop Rates” patch. Key changes included replacing Hitpoints with a Warmth Meter and quality-of-life tweaks like extended fletching cooldowns. However, the patch notes made no mention of altering the Phoenix drop rate or Reward Cart mechanics. The focus was on gameplay, not loot tables.
Community Feedback and Theories
Post-update, some players on Reddit and the OSRS Discord claimed the Phoenix felt “harder” or “easier” to obtain, but these anecdotes lack hard data. Without Jagex confirming a tweak—or datamined evidence from the game files—it’s likely perception bias from changed Wintertodt strategies affecting point totals and roll frequency.
Comparison with Varlamore Drop Rate Tweaks
The same October 2024 update adjusted drop rates for Varlamore bosses like Hueycoatl, increasing rates for items like Soiled Pages and Hueycoatl Hide. This transparency contrasts with the silence on Phoenix, suggesting no change occurred. Jagex tends to announce drop rate shifts explicitly, as seen with Varlamore.
Player Experiences: Evidence of a Shift?
With no official confirmation, player stories offer a glimpse into the Phoenix grind. Let’s explore real-world data and trends.
Dry Streaks and Lucky Breaks
Reddit is rife with tales of Phoenix woes:
- u/Reptillian97 (2018): Got the Phoenix after 3x the drop rate (15,000+ rolls) but lost it to a death moments later.
- u/Idleskiller (2021): Hit 200M Firemaking XP without a Phoenix, sparking the 15x debate.
- u/Bryannek (2019): Asked how to maximize chances, with advice pointing to solo 13k-point runs for 26 rolls.
These align with the 1/5,000 rate, showing no clear deviation post-2024.
Statistical Analysis
Using binomial probability, the chance of not getting a Phoenix after 5,000 rolls (at 1/5,000) is roughly 36.7%. After 10,000 rolls, it drops to 13.5%. Player dry streaks fit this curve, and 2025 reports on forums don’t suggest a statistical anomaly beyond RNG’s cruelty.
| Rolls | Chance of No Phoenix | Expected Crates (2 Rolls) |
|---|---|---|
| 5,000 | 36.7% | 2,500 |
| 10,000 | 13.5% | 5,000 |
| 15,000 | 4.9% | 7,500 |
How to Maximize Your Phoenix Chances in 2025
Whether the drop rate changed or not, optimizing your Wintertodt runs can boost your odds. Here’s how:
Point Optimization Strategies
More points mean more rolls, so aim high:
- Solo Runs: Target 13,000+ points for up to 26 rolls per crate (capped maximum).
- Fletching Focus: Fletch Bruma roots into kindling for higher points than burning logs.
- Warm Clothing: Equip items like the Pyromancer outfit to maintain Warmth efficiently post-2024 update.
Gear and Inventory Tips
Streamline your setup:
- Phoenix Necklace: Restores Warmth below 20%, reducing downtime.
- Light Inventory: Keep space for crates to avoid banking delays.
- Graceful Outfit: Speeds up movement between braziers.
Is It Worth the Grind?
With a potential 0.2% chance per 4,500-point crate (10 rolls), the Phoenix remains a long-term goal. If you enjoy Wintertodt’s cozy vibe, it’s a rewarding chase. Otherwise, consider pets with higher drop rates, like Skotizo’s 1/65.
Conclusion: No Change, Just RNG
So, did the Phoenix drop chance change? As of April 8, 2025, all evidence—official updates, historical data, and player stats—points to no. The 1/5,000 per roll rate holds steady, unaffected by the 2024 Wintertodt overhaul. Community speculation stems from RNG’s unpredictable nature, not a hidden tweak. For now, the Phoenix remains a fiery test of patience and perseverance. Keep grinding, praise the sun, and maybe that Reward Cart will finally deliver.
Have you snagged a Phoenix recently? Share your story in the comments or on the 2007Scape subreddit—your luck might inspire the rest of us!